Realigning This Mess

As we have all heard the NHL is working on a realignment plan for the 2012-2013 season.  You mean the NHL doesn’t want to keep the Winnipeg Jets in the Southeast division?!? Who knew..

So after the upcoming season there will be a hole to fill in Eastern Conference and an extra team in the West that will have to jump over to the East.  There are a number of teams petitioning the NHL as to why they should be selected to move into the East Conference.  The 3 popular choices, thus far, are the Detroit Red Wings, Nashville Predators, and the Columbus Blue Jackets.  Geographically speaking all 3 of these teams should be in the East.  However, there is only room for one at the table.  But, if all 3 join the East that would severely short-change the West, 17 teams in the East and only 13 in the West might not be the best move.

Lucky #13??

One of the 13 remaining teams is the NHL owned Phoenix (Glendale) Coyotes.  The fate of the struggling franchise is far from certain.  Coyotes-Champion Elect Mayor Scruggs of Glendale is no longer certain that the team will remain in Arizona after next season.  Where the Coyotes land if they leave Glendale is unknown, they could stay in the west or they could move to the East.  If they stay in the West the same problem with re-alignment is still there. If the Coyotes move to the East, Columbus, Detroit, and Nashville can stop asking the NHL to pick them to move into the Eastern Conference.

Status Quo in the Desert

For the purpose of discussing the future makeup of the league let us presume that the Coyotes stay put for the time being under stable-local-ownership.  An existing team still needs to move from the West to make room for the Winnipeg Jets.  Who should go? Who stays?  Well, Nashville is the farthest west out of the 3 so they stay put.  That leaves us Detroit and Columbus.  If I were the one picking who gets to join the Eastern Conference I would choose the Columbus Blue Jackets.  A Columbus team in the East helps their fans more than anything.  With the bulk of their games being held outside the Eastern Conference in the past the Jackets have been bleeding money. If their fans could follow the team in the Eastern Conference they would probably watch a lot more of the games on TV and start then to follow the team from the seats in Columbus.  Detroit on the other hand has a healthy following and can probably tough it out a while longer in the Western Conference.

Breaking it Down

Northeast Division: Montreal, Toronto, Ottawa, Buffalo, Boston; No changes, not much you can do here.

Atlantic Division: Pittsburgh, Columbus, Rangers, New Jersey, Islanders; Adding Columbus here would give them an instant geographical rival with Pittsburgh which is only a little over 3 hours away.

Southeast Division: Philadelphia, Washington, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Florida; Philly and Washington can get their hate on now they are in the same division, Philadelphia is the closes and best choice to join the Southeast.

Central Division: Dallas, St. Louis, Chicago, Detroit, Nashville; Spread out? Absolutely, but then again so is the rest of the Western Conference..  Dallas and St. Louis can see if they can not get along enough to develop a rivalry.

Pacific Division: Vancouver, San Jose, Anaheim, Los Angeles, Phoenix; Welcome to the toughest, meanest division in all of hockey. This division will become so good that even the folks on the farthest reaches of the east coast will stay up until 2 am to watch these guys play.

Northwest Division: Edmonton, Calgary, Colorado, Minnesota, Winnipeg; All these teams either do or have hated each other and that hate will continue to grow to the point that we can nickname the division “The Rivalry Division”

Easy Fix?

No such thing, but I like my solution compared to some of the crazy ideas out there. The Canadian Division? Good god, please don’t do it! Check out the Score’s blog on this one.  In the end I just hope that the NHL does right by the fans and allows for rivalries and good matchups prevail.

What Would You Pay

Art of Negotiation

We're coming up on the middle of July and the Oilers still have a some RFAs to sign. The biggest name on the list Andrew Cogliano has also filed for Salary Arbitration. Arbitration is where the player and the team sit down across the table from each other and try to hash out what the player's worth is in front of an arbitrator. This process is not for anyone who has low self-esteem or an easily bruised ego. The player will try to inflate himself to increase his pay-day and the team will haul out every reason in the book to show why the player isn't worthy of cashing in.

Cogliano does have some pluses, he is rarely injured and is consistent with his contributions on the ice. However, those contributions are not that of a top 6 forward. Now that isn't a shot against bottom 6 guys, they are just as important to winning the Stanley Cup as the top 6 guys. In fact, history has shown that the bottom 6 guys are the ones that will grind out those important wins during the playoffs. There is a definite difference in salary when it comes to the top 6 versus the bottom 6. Top 6 forwards are the point getters, they are the ones who get the offensive zone faceoffs and therefor the better chances to contribute to the scoresheet. Bottom 6 guys get the defensive zone faceoffs, they are there to win the draw, chase down the loose puck and get it out of the zone.

Where does that put Cogs in the big picture? Well last year showed us that the Oilers coaching staff is more than happy to groom the 24 yr old center to be a good bottom 6 forward. Tom Renney was giving Cogliano the opportunity and for the most part Andrew did his job. He was making a cool million last year and is undoubtedly looking for more this year. But how much more? What is his worth compared to the rest of the league? There were 10 Centers last year that played 70+ games and had 31 to 37 points. Cogliano sits right in the middle of this pack. The top of the heap was Kyle Brodziak, the one-time Oiler played 80 games and will earn 1.3 million this season. The bottom of the group (which was a veteran add-on) was Jason Arnott. The 36 yr old is slated to make 2.5 million with the St. Louis Blues. The highest paid player on the List is Mike Fisher of the Nashville Predators at a grand total of 4 million per. (Note: Fisher cashed in with Ottawa who was not prepared to let him walk as an Unrestricted Free Agent). The other player of note on the list is Tyler Bozak. Bozak is an up and comer on the list, and Toronto opened up and over-paid a little bit with the hope that Bozak continues to raise his point totals. Unlike Cogs, Bozak is counted on to be a future 2nd liner with a salary to match. Bozak is slated to earn 1.6 million next year.

*Cogliano has 3 more years of experience over Brian Boyle, their salaries in the chart are from 2010-11 season.

So, where does that leave Andrew Cogliano at the negotiating table? Well the chart above showed us that most of the players similar to Cogliano earn between 1 million and 1.3 million dollars. This is about right for a good 3rd/4th line player. Eric Belanger, just signed as UFA by the Oilers, is on a front loaded 3 year contract and is due to earn 2 million this year. Should Cogliano earn that much? No. Belanger has years of experience in the league and was one of the best face-off guys in the NHL last season (over 50% avg. for the season). Belanger also sees time on the Powerplay and the Penalty Kill. By the time Cogliano hits the age of 29 or 30 he could be one of those players. He needs to learn the craft over the next 3 years from Belanger, Cogliano already has the speed and he is tougher than most think (he was hit in the mouth with either a stick or a puck so many times last season that his dentist is now retired). Once Cogs improves his face-off totals and chips in offensively more consistently he will be one of those highly sought after Centers during his UFA years. Good luck Andrew!

 The Other Guys

Taylor Chorney and Ryan O'Marra are also RFAs..they aren't going to arbitration, they probably won't even start with the big club this season. This is not a knock against either of those guys. Right now they are more suited to the AHL than the NHL. Best they can hope for is a 1 or 2 year deal to earn the league minimum when they are in the NHL (on call up). They may improve to role players in the future, but they will never be ticket selling players. There is absolutely nothing wrong with playing in the AHL is a career. A good AHL player can earn $100,000 or more playing in the American Hockey League. Even an average player in the AHL makes more than a working-man's average salary, AND that is to play the game of hockey. We should all be so lucky.

Old Oiler to join New Jets?

Old Oiler to New Jet

According to the Winnipeg Sun (read article here), Charlie Huddy has agreed to join the coaching staff of the Winnipeg Jets.  The New Jets continue to build in the right places. Charlie Huddy brings a wealth of experience with him that should help the young Jets blueline immensely. His work behind the bench during the Edmonton Oilers 2006 cup run was invaluable.

Now. Who else from the then-hated Edmonton Oilers can the Jets find to help them build their own cup contender? Hey, if you could never beat them..just wait, they'll get old and retire and need to find work somewhere!

Goaltending Coach:
Grant Fuhr (oops, he's with Phoenix)
Bill Ranford (darn, he's in LA LA land)
Andy Moog (crap, he's with Dallas org.)

There are no other Oilers to choose from there and I doubt Winnipeg could steal Bobby Essensa from the Bruins.

Assistant Coaches:

Jari Kurri (ah to dream)
Wayne Gretzky (Phoenix..no need to say more)
Mark Messier (zzzzz...sorry was dreaming)

Well, here's hoping the further choices made to stand behind the Winnipeg Jets bench are good ones! Also of note in the Winnipeg Sun article it appears that there is nothing to report in the negotiations with Blake Wheeler except to say that the date for arbitration is August 3rd. Probably won't be too bad of a hearing, Wheeler is good (hope to see more next season out of him) but probably shouldn't get a huge raise.

Stay tuned for little tidbits of news as the summer progresses. Because that's what the off-season is all about.

Character Built for Survival

Homegrown Characters

Welcome to Winnipeg to most of the re-located Atlanta Thrashers! Welcome home to the rest. The new Jets, or Jets 2.0, did not have to have to send the Winnipeg Tourism video to some of their new players. No less than 3 players have a fair chance to make the team, those 3 aren't the only ones in the organization depth charts. Along with the newly aquired Eric Fehr (Winkler) and the newly signed Derek Meech and Jason Gregoire (Winnipeg), there is 18 year old D-man Peter Stoykewych and recently drafted goalie Jason Kasdork also from Winnipeg.  We've definitely come a long way since Russ Romaniuk!

Just to the South of Homegrown..

Close enough to be considered homegrown there are also a trio on Minnesotans flying with the Jets. Blake Wheeler, Big Buff Dustin Byfuglien, and D-man Mark Stuart all have roots in Minnesota. There will surely be requests from family members to catch a few games at either the MTS or Xcel Energy. Anyone who has been down the road to Minnesota can tell you that it really isn't that much different between there and Southern Manitoba/Winnipeg, so you can scratch these 3 boys off the 'Culture Shocked' list.

But What about the Future?

This team build through character is certainly a good start for the new GM. No mailing in games this season, no such thing as taking a night off, and no quitters allowed. There are a few needs that have to be met, a few razzle-dazzle skilled players added to the mix wouldn't hurt, but that being said this years free-agents weren't exactly the cream of the crop. Cheveldayoff is better off making minor fixes in terms of signing Unrestricted FAs this summer or a trade of two. Best course of action is to keep the talent that is on the roster and then re-evaluate as the season progresses and into next summer.

Beware..the End is Near (ish)

The signings and trades done so far aren't blockbusters, but they are all (except for the Ladd and Gregoire signings) for 1 year. After next season the CBA is up for renegotiation and there is bound to be a few changes in it to the way contracts and money is spent. It is doubtful there will be a lockout or a labor stoppage with this negotiation. It just wouldn't make sense, the 2011-2012 season has the chance to make big advances in the sports market in the USA. Both the NFL and the NBA are facing labor stoppages or lockouts. All those Americans are going to be looking for some sporting event to watch this winter and if the NHL is lucky and/or good they can cash in. Hopefully keep some of those football/basketball converts interested enough in the great game of hockey once those other sports get their crap together. Now, if the NHL then turns around and has their own labor strife take center stage all those gains will be lost.

Anyone taking bets that the Owners and Players will do the smart thing and work together on this?

The 1st Step is Always the Hardest

There are many great hockey blogs/news sites out there. This is not one of them. (yet..I hope)

For more professional, and perhaps fun, sites out there here are two of my favorites:

Illegal Curve (Winnipeg Sports)
The OilersNation (Great articles about the Oilers)

I'll never be as good as the people who write for these websites, but what I hope to offer is an everyday fan's look and opinion on the great sport of hockey. All opinions on here are my own and if I'm going to quote a real news story I will provide the website where I found it. Rumors and professional sports go hand in hand, I don't have sources or even people who know people (who might know someone), I will give you thoughts and opinions on hockey. That's it that's all. If I'm lucky you'll like what you read and come back for more.

Comments are always welcomed and appreciated. If you think I'm out to lunch tell me that. Keep it civil. Let's talk some hockey!

Summer..the bane of hockey fans everywhere. After the Free Agent Frenzy is complete there are only tidbits of information thrown out to us like breadcrumbs to the birds to fight over and dissect. I am definitely one of those who scour the web and sports newscasts searching for something, anything to read and discuss. Thankfully, unlike days gone by, there are far more outlets of media to scour. Growing up all we had were the newspapers. Where, if lucky, you'd be given a small blurb of information on the side column of the sports section right next to the baseball and football scores. Today we've got bloggers, posters, online newspapers, videos, and Twitter. But this is summer, all the rivers of hockey information has slowed to a trickle. We're relegated to minor contract signings or 3rd/4th line players who are getting 2-way contracts. Or if we're lucky Brian Burke will hold another news conference to trumpet his values, perhaps another interview with Craig Ramsay (new Ass. Coach w/ Florida Panthers)?

Biggest story so far to me is the announcement of the Prospects Game/Tourney being held in Penticton this fall. Teams including the San Jose Sharks, Vancouver Canucks, Calgary Flames, Edmonton Oilers, and Winnipeg Jets!  For the Jets this great, they weren't able to hold a development camp this year so it will be very beneficial for the Scouts/Coaching staff to see the prospects playing together in a game setting. The Jets staff will then be able to determine who is ready for the main camp invites.

Development Camps such as the one being help by the Edmonton Oilers are very beneficial to young players. It allows them to learn about life outside of junior/university hockey. There are lifestyle classes as well as training regimes given to the players to guide them into their professional careers. It is also great for the fans to get their first glimpses of tomorrow's stars. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is making quite the impression right now to the hometown media. These top-prospects (Hall and Eberle last year) can almost do no wrong, they are a ribbon cutting and 3 kissed babies away from running for political office. They are media darlings, their interviews are gobbled up by hockey fans everywhere. Every little story coming from an NHL team these long, hot summer days are we have to get us into the fall and the start of Training Camps. Bring on the cold, bring on the snow, bring on the HOCKEY!

If you have made it this far, thank you and come back again soon. I'll have more stuff to talk about I'm sure. I'll also post interviews (mostly from the Jets and Oilers) in future blogs. I'll always be a Jets fan first and foremost, but the dark years when the Coyotes came into being were lit by the Oilers.  Thankfully the Oilers and the Jets are playing in different conferences this year! Too bad it is re-building/development years for both teams. A Jets v. Oilers Stanley Cup would be a dream series for me. I'd have to cheer for the home teams ;)

You can also follow me on Twitter. @PhillipSmithson